The Middle East Conflict || Complete Analysis

 THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT.

The pandemic has entirely changed the course of the earth. It has deeply impacted the geopolitics and economy. To add to this conflict in the middle East is also responsible for instability and disturbance not only in the middle East area but also the entire world. Messed with conflict the Middle East region is suffering from unstable government, civil wars, frequent terrorist strikes, human trafficking, poverty, illiteracy, marginalisation, etc. But what are the actual causes of the conflict, who are affected by it, how to prevent it? All this lies in this post. So let's begin.

MIDDLE EAST REGION

The Middle East is the region of western Asia and North-Eastern Africa. It includes 16 countries comprising, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Most of the region lies in the Arab World. Enriched with oil deposits, most of the country's economy is based upon the demand for crude oil. This region is nowadays tensed with terrorist, internal civil wars, ongoing conflict further heating the matter in previous decades. 

HISTORY: Establishment of Islam and The Beginning of Conflict

As I previously said in one of my posts that the root of most of the conflict on this earth is religion. The same case lies here. The major reason for this middle East conflict is religion. To understand this we will have to go to the history of Islam. The concept of Monotheism or one God originated from the city of Jerusalem in Israel. Firstly it was established by Abraham: The founder of Judaism. After Abraham when Jesus Christ also gave the teachings of Monotheism, Jews saw Jesus Christ link with Judaism. Jesus Christ was seen as a preacher of Judaism. It was only after the crucifixion of Jesus Christ when the new testament was derived and Christianity was separated from Judaism. After Christ, Prophet Muhammad also gave the teachings of Monotheism. So it was crystal clear that Monotheism came from Jerusalem but the only thing which separated that Islam declared Prophet Muhammad as the last messenger of God. According to them, no one can become the messenger after Prophet Muhammad. After the death of Prophet Muhammad in 632 AD, four caliphs were chosen to preach Islam. They were Abu Bakr, Umar, Usman and Ali. The main two Khalifas were Abu Bakr and Ali. Ali made some excellent liberal changes in Islam, and people were happier in his reign. He had a liberal mindset. But Abu Bakr had a bit conservative mind. And here started the conflict. Islam was separated into two groups, the followers of Abu Bakr was called Sunni and the followers of Ali was called Shia. After the death of Prophet Muhammad, Islam was now under a serious conflict. These two groups had an eye to eye conflict.  

When Prophet Muhammad was alive, Islam was limited in Mecca, Medina, Yemen and Hejaz region. After the death of Muhammad, Islam was preached by the caliphs into the regions of Egypt, Oman, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Baluchistan, Afghanistan. After these caliphs, the next caliph named Ummayud further preached Islam into the region of Tunisia, Northern Africa, Spain, Portugal, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Malaysia. This expansion was then named the mighty Ottoman Empire. 

But the blunder was done when the Islamic community led a military attack on Europe. And this started a holy or religious war named the Crusade . The matter further heated when Ayyubid sultan Saladin captured Constantinople or present-day Istanbul. The whole of Europe was shaken due to loss. At any given point of time, Europe could have surrendered. Because all the goods to Europe were supplied by India and China and remember 55% of world GDP was of India and China only at that time. And they were the superpowers. So Constantinople broke the supply of goods to Europe which led to a devastating economic collapse. But remember Necessity is the mother of invention. This economic collapse compelled the Europeans to find another route to India. When Vasco da Gama discovered the sea route to India and Christopher Columbus discovered the sea route to the United States of America, the blockage of Constantinople became useless. The hold of the Ottoman Empire weakened. 

As globalization expanded in Europe, the Ottoman Empire remained isolated and unexposed. The economic prosperity of Europe overpowered the Ottoman Empire and his base collapsed.

Hurting of Islamic Sentiments by Western Imperialism

Till now, the European world had made an eminent position in the whole world, and its ideology often conflicted with the ideology of other areas. But it is also a fact that it also pointed some flaws in others' ideologies. As to abolish Sati pratha, Raja Ram Mohan Roy came up, Swami Dayanand Saraswati came up for Women education.  The Islamic world gave a mixed response. One sect gave a liberal approach and willed to reform the flaws while the other gave a conservative approach and came into fight with Europeans. The conservatives stressed upon Wahabism and Salafism and thought that Islamic culture would get extinct by following a western ideology. But some liberal leaders like Jamal Al-Din Al-Afghani and Mohammed Iqbal thought that rectification of flaws will only enrich the Islamic culture. They also told that European science and modernity need not clash with the Islamic balance of reason and faith. 

But in the later years, European imperialism further hurt the sentiments of Islam. The destruction of the Ottoman Empire after World War 1 led to a serious impact on the middle East. Further, the control over Egypt and Suez Canal left a negative image of Europe in the minds of people living in the Middle East. The deporting of the last Mughal Emperor Bahadur Shah Jafar from Delhi to Rangoon also angered the middle East. This was also added by the dual imperialistic pressure of Russia and the United kingdom on the Middle East. This gave birth to a new conflict between the Middle East and The European countries.

Birth of Israel

The birth of Israel in the Middle East gave a new flame to the issue. The Jews and the Muslim had an eye to eye conflict with each other. Israel was surrounded by enemies. The Middle East countries tried a hundred times to defeat Israel but failed a numerous times. This again gave rise to a second conflict between the Jews and the Muslims. Israel, also tensed with the Hamas terrorist organization, is further escalating the issue. A Conflict between Israel and Hamas is also possible. I had discussed this conflict in detail in one of my previous posts. If you haven't read the post yet then you can read it by clicking here. 

Morden Causes of Conflict and Recent Trends

Shina-Sunni Conflict

Here lies the whole root of the conflict. These two groups are in a deadly position with each other. The Shia people are in a complete minority with only 20% to 25% of the population in the Middle East. The Sunni are in a complete majority. Most of the Shia people are in majority in the nations of Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon. This conflict has grown in such a manner that even the countries have started funding terrorist organization in the name of ethnicity and belief. The major stakeholders in this conflict lie with Saudi Arabia and Iran. These two Nations have started making their alliances against each other. Both these Nations wants to become a regional superpower in the Middle East region, thus rising a deadly conflict.

Terrorist organization

The Middle East is tensed with frequent terrorist strikes. Terrorist organizations have snatched the people's basic rights. These terrorist organization often fight in the name of the belief of Shia and Sunni. For example in Yemen, Sunni people are in majority in this nation. But Houthi Rebels have made the region unstable. This Houthi group is based on the ideology of Shia. The opposite lies in Iraq. Iraq is a Sunni country. But everyone knows the terror made by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which lies with an ideology of Sunni. This had left the people with the feeling of complete terror and awe.

Lack of Democracy

Most of the nations in the Middle East either follow monarchy or theocracy. The people living out there are yearning to see a democratically elected government. Most middle East nations have no real political parties or pluralistic structures. Only the monarchies have a history of political legitimacy. There is no clear basis for representative government, no experience of political compromise and making election work, and no pattern of effective governance combined with economic progress and social evolution to build upon. The combination of challenges related to income distribution, deep problems with corruption and nepotism, and discrimination were compounding; pre-existing agitation over lack of freedom, threatening regional stability, creating significant challenges to the Middle East countries. There are even no basic rights of people. Lack of education, startups, employment, etc is further giving rise to the problems. A focus on politics and violence and on issues like terrorism and religion grossly understands both the forces at work and the time and effort needed to correct them. 

Lack of Freedom of Speech

The Arab countries follow a very oppressive approach to the media. The media are not allowed to criticize the government. The media is acting as the puppet of the government. People are not allowed to express their views and ideas. The government doesn't tolerate any kind of criticism. For example, there lived a famous journalist named Jamal Ahmed Khashoggi. He raised his voice against the Saudi Arabian prince Muhammad Bin Salman. According to Khashoggi, Women today should have the same rights as men. And all citizens should have the right to speak their minds without the fear of imprisonment. Khashoggi described the hopes of the Arab world in a press conference during the Arab Spring and shared his hope of an Arab world with free press, independent from national governments, would develop so that ordinary people in the Arab world would be able to address the structural problems their societies face. Muhammed Bin Salman didn't like the thoughts of Khashoggi. So death threats began arriving at Khashoggi's house. He, therefore, flew away to the United States of America and started writing for Washington Post.

Left: Muhammad Bin Salman
Right: Jamal Ahmed Khashoggi

He continued to raise his voice against the oppressive government. But when he was engaged with some of his passport work, he unwillingly arrived at the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Istanbul, Turkey. In the CCTV camera, he was seen entering the embassy and his wife waiting outside. Khashoggi knew that his life will be under threat in the embassy. So, he before entering, warned his wife that if he didn't return in 15 min then she should call the press and declare that Khashoggi has died. The same happened. Khashoggi was never seen coming outside. Even his dead body was not recovered. Till now, the Khashoggi death lies a mystery and is not proven yet. The middle East States now require a serious call of change that will allow people with basic rights. If not done, then the conflict will go on in a never-ending loop.

Top: Jamal Khashoggi entering the embassy.
Bottom: Suspect seeing carrying a black bag which as predicted contained Jamal's dead body pieces.

Arab Spring

The middle East conflict is incomplete without the mentioning of Arab Spring. Arab Spring was a series of protest, mass revolt and armed rebellion in most of the Arab States in the early 2010s. It resulted in a massive turnover of governments in the Arab Nations. Authoritarianism, Monarchies, Energy Crisis, corruption, human rights violation, unemployment, inflation, kleptocracy, poverty and sectarianism resulted in the revolt. It started when a vegetable seller, Mohammed Bouazizi in Tunisia set himself on fire because of the constant demand for bribes by the police. Later on a Czech student, Jan Palach also set himself on fire. This small flick was enough to lit a massive fire. The people already angered with the ongoing trends started huge revolts. Main slogan ash-shaʻb yurīd isqāṭ an-niẓām! ("the people want to bring down the regime") was heard all around Arab. The revolt later spread from Tunisia to other Arab countries which resulted in the turnover of the government. This was known as the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring was able to completely shake the government of several states. The outcome was: 

1. Tunisia: President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted, charged, exiled and the government overthrow
2. Egypt: President Hosni Mubarak was ousted, arrested, charged, and the government was overthrown. The Sinai Insurgency also beganL
3. Libya: Leader Muammar Gaddafi killed following an eight-month civil war that saw a foreign military intervention and the government was overthrown.
4. Yemen: President Ali Abdullah Saleh was ousted, and power handed to a national unity government.
5. Syria: President Bashar al-Assad faced a civil uprising against his rule that deteriorated into armed rebellion and eventual full-scale civil war.
6. Bahrain: Civil uprising against the government crushed by authorities and Saudi-led intervention.
7. Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Morocco and Jordan Government changes implemented in response to protests.
8. SaudiArabia, Palestine, Sudan, Mauritiana also faced severe protests

Surprising right?? But this was the fact. A long scale oppression resulted in such a massive change.

Influence on India

India has a very tactful and complex relationship with the Middle East nations. India's main crude oil supply comes from Iran. Gwadar port is very necessary for India to access in the Eurasian region, countering the string of pearls strategy of China and also an economic advantage. Further various roadways to Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan from Iran, railway connectivity to Gwadar, Pipeline through Pakistan to India from Iran are also proposed. This stability in Iran is very much necessary for the reasonable price of petroleum and also defence-related strategy. History says that whenever even a small conflict in Iran arises, petroleum prices in India have skyrocketed. Thus Stability in Iran is very much necessary. Furthermore, 8.5 million Indians are working alone in the Gulf countries comprising of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain. Thus huge employment lies in the Gulf countries. Instability in Gulf will lead to the arrival of 8.5 million workers to India thus further increasing unemployment. Furthermore India's Defense technology now entirely lies on Israel. Recent defence technology, drones, anti-missile systems, etc are brought from Israel. Thus close relations with Israel are also needed. Now the problem arises that Iran has a serious conflict with Saudi and Israel has a serious conflict with all of them. And India has gains from all. Thus India will have to act as a mediator. Stability and resolvation of the Conflict in the middle East is very much needed for the interest of India and India should try its best to cool down the matter.

Conclusion

As you saw from the above post that the Middle East conflict is affecting the whole world's geopolitics and economy. And the main problem is the matter is further escalating rather than cooling. Reforms in the policies of Middle East nations are in a serious call. Basic rights are to be seriously given to the citizens. More investment should be done in education and innovation. The recent policies of Middle East nations lie entirely on the business of crude oil. But everyone knows that the usage of renewable sources of energy is near, and the day the world's dependency on oil will end the game will be over for the middle East. It will encounter a drastic downfall in the economy. So investment in tourism, innovation, technology, business should be done immediately. Furthermore, India should mediate and cool down the issue which will also be beneficial for the world. If these rights and reforms in policies are not brought immediately then a second Arab Spring is not far away. 

I hope you would have liked the post. Please pen down your thoughts, suggestion, predictions in the comment box below... Thank You!

-Dibyaansh Pradhan

(NOTE: The Post was written before the recent Hamas Conflict. So, that issue has not been covered in this post. But the issue will be covered in the next one! STAY TUNED.)